NFL Pre-Season
There are many bettors who will not even consider having a wager on the pre-season NFL games. We see about 3% of the action on a typical pre-season match up as we would on the same game if played in the regular season. But for those prepared to do a bit of research, betting on pre-season games can be the most profitable time of the year.
As a linesmaker, we find it very difficult to set the lines on this game. So much of the pre-season training will have gone on in private and we have no idea how much or little preparation the teams will have got in before they play exhibition matches. Some teams will not be fully fit as the coach will prefer to slowly wind up his squad until they are all ready to fire on all cylinders in Week One, while some want to get the feeling that their team is a well prepared unit that knows what they are doing weeks before the season starts. The well prepared bettor can certainly beat us on these games.
The hardest problem to solve is to know when the teams will take off their starters and give other, less important, players a start. The key thing for all teams in pre-season is to avoid any serious injuries to their star players. Having your starting quarterback taken out for the season in a largely meaningless contest is not a good idea and coaches will do everything to avoid this scenario.
The players who win big from us on pre-season spend a good amount of time studying the coaches’ previous pre-season patterns and working out which coaches will be going for a morale boosting win and which coaches really don’t care. Some coaches obviously care – either about winning or simply covering the spread to keep the fans happy – and some obviously don’t care.
Shrewd bettors will also be spending time looking all the way down the squad to see whether there are players who are currently the second and third choices for their position but who, with a good display in training and the pre-season games, could make their mark and take over the starting position. Where there are two or three players who might impress enough to take over the starting position there is a good chance the side will be motivated to play through to the final down and therefore will be a good bet against-the-spread.
For your information, here’s the pre-season record (Against the BetonUSA.com Spread) of all the NFL coaches:
Team/Coach/Record/2003/2004/2005
ARZ Dennis Green 4-4* X 1-3 3-1
ATL Jim Mora Jr. 6-3 X 2-2 4-1
BAL Brian Billick 17-10 1-3 3-1 2-2
BUF Dick Jauron 7-13 1-3 X X
CAR John Fox 11-5 4-0 4-0 2-2
CHI Lovie Smith 5-4 X 2-2 3-2
CIN Marvin Lewis 5-7 1-3 2-2 2-2
CLE Romeo Crennel 3-1 X X 3-1
DAL Bill Parcells 18-6* 2-2 3-1 3-1
DEN Mike Shanahan 34-14* 3-1 2-3 4-0
DET Rod Marinelli 0-0 X X X
GB Mike McCarthy 0-0 X X X
HOU Gary Kubiak 0-0 X X X
IND Tony Dungy 7-10* 3-1 2-2 0-5
JAX Jack Del Rio 8-4 3-1 3-1 2-2
KC Herman Edwards 15-6 3-2 3-1 3-1
MIA Nick Saban 1-4 X X 1-4
MIN Brad Childress 0-0 X X X
NE Bill Belichick 16-9* 4-0 1-3 2-2
NO Sean Payton 0-0 X X X
NYG Tom Coughlin 4-4* X 1-3 3-1
NYJ Eric Mangini 0-0 X X X
OAK Art Shell 14-10* X X X
PHI Andy Reid 10-18 2-2 1-3 2-2
PIT Bill Cowher 28-27 1-3 2-2 3-1
SD Marty Schottenheimer 9-11* 2-2 2-2 2-2
SEA Mike Holmgren 13-15* 2-2 3-1 2-2
SF Mike Nolan 2-2 X X 2-2
STL Scott Linehan 0-0 X X X
TB Jon Gruden 23-11 4-1 3-1 2-2
TEN Jeff Fisher 20-16* 4-0 3-1 1-3
WAS Joe Gibbs 4-5* X 3-2 1-3
NFL Regular Season
If the bettors have got it right then this year’s race for the Super Bowl is one of the most open ever. Normally we expect to see the early cash focused around five or six teams but this year we’re seeing a wide range of action, with bettors looking for big odds teams to provide a shock in Miami next February.
We put up our line on the Super Bowl three minutes into the second half of last year’s game but we saw very little action until the draft. Normally you could expect the reigning champions to attract good support but the Steelers have been utterly friendless, even though they have managed back-to-back titles on two occasions to date. The absence of Roethlisberger in week one didn’t hurt them as they beat the Dolphins with two fourth quarter touchdowns but I think they will need a few more convincing performances before the bettors step in with any serious money.
Our biggest loser at this point (Monday 4 Sept) are the Saints. New Orleans supporters have bet them from 80-1 into 45-1 and it is hard to think they could have a worse season than last year. The return to their home stadium has to give them a few more wins and Reggie Bush will be a huge boost but I can’t honestly see them going all the way (their linebackers are the worst in the country) and I am happy with our position.
Dallas are the next best supported team and I was a big fan of the Cowboys last season at triple the odds offered now. The money mainly comes on the back of T.O.’s arrival. We always see cash for Parcells’ teams but I am not 100% convinced this year and would happily take plenty more bets at 7/1. The main concern for Cowboys fans is that Drew Bledsoe is so injury prone. It’s about 50% that he misses more games than he plays as it seems that even if he trips on a feather he will shatter four toes.
The AFC looks a stronger half than the NFC but not to the extent that it has in the past few years. We make the AFC 4.5 points favorites for the Super Bowl with a under/over of 47.5. Those who like a long-term position have in the past five seasons found they can get a good middle later in the season by taking the AFC now and then betting the NFC with a double figure start in about week 9.
The team that interests me most is the Ravens. Jamal Lewis had his worst season ever in 2005/6 but he was the key player on the team and opponents stacked their defense to stop him running. Now those opponents need to think about Steve McNair too and with Kyle Boller as a very decent backup if McNair is injured the Ravens have a lot of reasons to be cheerful. I’ve had some 50/1 with one of our rivals and if they start well (which they should do against Tampa, Oakland and Cleveland) the Ravens will be much shorter odds by week 3.
Pre-season indications suggest that Green Bay are the worst team in the league. I saw them at Lambeau at the end of last season and they looked poor then but on the evidence of what we have seen in August they have regressed since then. They look a fair wager to record under six victories at odds of +140.
The other team I will be looking to oppose is the Jets. Chad Pennington is a good quarterback but he has no coverage and no-one to throw too. If he gets injured then the Jets are in really serious trouble but I think even if he stays healthy one player does not a team make. I’ll take the Jets to win under six games too.
Shorteners
NE PATRIOTS 7/1 into 6/1
CAR PANTHERS 8/1 into 6/1
DAL COWBOYS 10/1 into 7/1
DEN BRONCOS 15/1 into 10/1
WAS REDSKINS 20/1 into15/1
JAC JAGUARS 25/1 into 18/1
KC CHIEFS 25/1 into 20/1
PHI EAGLES 25/1 into 20/1
MIA DOLPHINS 30/1 into 18/1
BAL RAVENS 40/1 into 30/1
ARZ CARDINALS 60/1 into 40/1
NO SAINTS 80/1 into 45/1
TEN TITANS 125/1 into 80/1
NY JETS 200/1 into 150/1
Drifters
PIT STEELERS 10/1 out to12/1
MIN VIKINGS 30/1 out to 40/1
No change
IND COLTS 7/2
SEA SEAHAWKS 6/1
SD CHARGERS 12/1
NY GIANTS 15/1
CHI BEARS 15/1
TB BUCCANEERS 15/1
CIN BENGALS 20/1
ATL FALCONS 25/1
GB PACKERS 35/1
CLE BROWNS 50/1
STL RAMS 50/1
BUF BILLS 60/1
OAK RAIDERS 60/1
DET LIONS 60/1
HOU TEXANS 80/1
SF 49ERS 100/1
Place your bet today!!!